[Terrapreta] Fw: a tiny outburst of common sense

[Sean K. Barry]

Hi David,

I just read something called "Jevons Paradox".  Duane Pendergast referred me to it.  It is related to a "logical fallacy", called "affirming the consequent", and I think, an incorrect working the modus tollens or modus ponens rule?

The applicable "fallacy" in the article you referred points out that you cannot rely on conservation of use of fossil fuels to lower fossil fuel consumption.  Reducing the demand (conservation or raising the efficiencies) will lower prices temporarily, but eventually will result in increased demand again.  If we conserve, then carbon demand and consumption will not go up?  ... doesn't work.  That dog don't hunt.  That is a weak induction argument.  The market forces will drive an increase in total demand for fossil fuels.  It is a powerful mechanism that has built most of all the world wide monopolies.

The only logical method applicable, is a correct use of "inference", when A => B, says not A means not B and also not B means not A.  The way to use this to stop burning fossil fuels, is not to burn less (conservation), but rather to stop mining and drilling for (supplying) fossil carbon fuels!  Or, eliminate the supply altogether and that will definitely lower the total demand and consumption,.  If supply A, then demand B (and consumption), means that without supply => then no demand (and no consumption) in a market.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox>

In a world where the demand for energy is intense, crucial, and intensifying, the fossil fuel energy industry is in its hey day.
They operate in a vast market, which allows them to promote conservation and at the same time drive up corporate revenues.
As for their "renewable energy" objectives, in an open market, replacement of fossil carbon fuel will eliminate the demand and consumption, only if replacement "renewable energy" sources are found at a lower price and can completely replace the "energy" content of the fossil carbon fuels.  As long as there are people who can only buy fossil carbon fuels, then suppliers will always be able to sell at just about any price.  If the supply becomes so precious and rare, it will price right into unavailability for all.

Without replacement of the "energy" sources, we ALL will not have enough available "energy" resources to live and work as we now do.  Conservation is the "bait" of markets that fossil fuel suppliers are running, along with automobile manufacturers, and politicians who's futures are bent on the "status quo" of open markets acting like open markets.  This is just business.  Business as usual is their moniker.  What would you do, doing so well in business, to consider changing what you are doing?

Maybe we should consider creating the business of "Eliminating Fossil Carbon Fuel Consumption", and use the logic of eliminating (or taxing the shit out of) fossil fuel supply, in order to rid the world of noxious carbon dioxide pollution?


"The government's climate change policy works like this: extract every last drop of fossil fuel then pray to God that no one uses it."

Regards,

SKB
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: David Yarrow<mailto:dyarrow at nycap.rr.com> 
  To: terrapreta at bioenergylists.org<mailto:terrapreta at bioenergylists.org> 
  Sent: Sunday, December 16, 2007 3:19 PM
  Subject: [Terrapreta] Fw: a tiny outburst of common sense


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