[Terrapreta] "Giving Up On Two Degrees"

[Larry Williams]

Tom and all:

We have had discussion on two aspects of Terra Preta that I hold  
dear. Growing plants for food and the sequestration of carbon. This  
morning an article by George Monbiot, "Giving Up ON Two Degrees" was  
sent to me. Although, this is the first critical analysis of national  
and international plans to reduce atmospheric CO2 that I have read, I  
have questioned climate change solutions that are achieved in 2020  
and beyond as a day late and a dollar short.

In fact, this article scares me and I don't have any children that  
will receive the problems from global warming. My spirituality is  
tied to Nature. I derive my inspiration and strength from the natural  
world. I am not asking you to accept my belief. You have your own  
guiding beliefs and values. I feel that this is important for you to  
know when you read my comments.

Understanding the soil management techniques around Terra Preta for  
the purpose of growing food has, I believe, value in the Pacific NW.  
Small events have occurred in the local soils and in my garden that  
suggest some significance impact in using fertilized charcoal for  
growing plants locally. Although, the tropical soils have specific  
limiting factors, those forests do not seem to lack in abundance of  
flora or fauna. So to say, as I have heard locally, that Terra Preta  
doesn't apply in rich local, Whatcom County, WA, soils is not proven  
till we know more of the process. Some local soils are poor growing  
soils for specific plants that might be improved. I digress from my  
greater concern.

The second aspect that this list has discussed relates to the  
sequestering of carbon in the soil. Monbiot's point is for setting  
realistic reduction standards that achieve a stable CO2 level that,  
as I read his article, prevents unnecessary harm to the greater  
population. I may have 20-30+ years to watch and participate in this  
"show". If the tone of his article is anywhere close to reality and  
if Steiner's comments (of this list, April 20,  2007 1:31:01 AM PDT)  
hold merit then it seems that our contributions in time and effort  
face a critical junction.

My experiences with water, soil, plants and wildlife tell me that  
change is on us even if we act on an emergency basis. I suggest that  
we acknowledge the serious situation that we, this list and the  
larger we of this blue-green globe, are facing. Each year the extent  
and the rapidity of change is increasing and each year scientists  
note the increased rate of change. The Monboiot article only  
reinforces my sense of urgency. I am open to a review of the below  
article.

Are there many scientific papers that suggest the sequestration of  
black carbon in the soil profile can have a significant impact on  
atmospheric carbon?

There are many ways for a goal to fail and far fewer ways to succeed.  
Ah! The search for the critical path-------Larry






-----------------------
@ http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2007/05/01/1058/

Giving Up On Two Degrees    (click to review the full article)
Posted May 1, 2007
Have we already abandoned our attempts to prevent dangerous climate  
change?By George Monbiot. Published in the Guardian, 1st May 2007


The rich nations seeking to cut climate change have this in common:  
they lie. You won’t find this statement in the draft of the new  
report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which was  
leaked to the Guardian last week. But as soon as you understand the  
numbers, the words form before your eyes. The governments making  
genuine efforts to tackle global warming are using figures they know  
to be false.

------------------snip------------------

www.monbiot.com

  References:
1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, February 2007. Climate  
Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers.  
http://www.ipcc.ch/WG1_SPM_17Apr07.pdf

2. Rachel Warren, 2006. Impacts of Global Climate Change at Different  
Annual Mean Global Temperature Increases. In Hans Joachim  
Schellnhuber (Ed in Chief). Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change.  
Cambridge University Press.

3. F.R. Rijsberman and R.J. Swart (Eds), 1990. Targets and indicators  
of climate change: Report of Working Group II of the Advisory Group  
on Greenhouse Gases. Stockholm Environment Institute.

4. Council of the European Union, 11th March 2005. Information note  
7242/05. http://register.consilium.europa.eu/pdf/en/05/st07/ 
st07242.en05.pdf

5. Malte Meinshausen, 2006. What Does a 2°C Target Mean for  
Greenhouse Gas Concentrations? A Brief Analysis Based on Multi-Gas  
Emission Pathways and Several Climate Sensitivity Uncertainty  
Estimates. In Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (Ed in Chief). Avoiding  
Dangerous Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.

6. The IPCC uses the words “Unlikely” and “Very Unlikely”. These have  
precise definitions in the IPCC process: a 33% likelihood and a 10%  
likelihood. For the full set of definitions, see Intergovernmental  
Panel on Climate Change, February 2007, ibid.

7. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007. Mitigation of  
Climate Change. Unpublished draft report, version 3.0. Table SPM 1.

8. The figures the IPCC uses in Table SPM 1 suggest that the other  
greenhouse gases account for 21% of the climate change due to carbon  
dioxide alone. This is a high estimate – other authors (eg Sir  
Nicholas Stern, the UK Department for Environment), suggest 10 or 15%.

9. Again, I use the IPCC’s formula here. Other estimates would  
produce a slightly lower figure.

10. Sir Nicholas Stern, October 2006. The Economics of Climate  
Change. HM Treasury. Part 3, p194. http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/ 
independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/ 
stern_review_report.cfm

11. DEFRA, 2003. The Scientific Case for Setting a Long-Term Emission  
Reduction Target. http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/ 
pubs/pdf/ewp_targetscience.pdf

12. HM Government, March 2006. Climate Change: The UK Programme 2006.  
http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/uk/ukccp/pdf/ 
ukccp06-all.pdf

13. Council of the European Union, ibid.

14. Nick Hurd MP and Clare Kerr, April 2007. Don’t give up on 2°C.  
Conservative Party’s Quality of Life Commission. http:// 
www.qualityoflifechallenge.com/documents/TwoDegreesApril2007.pdf

15. This is on the basis of a metric developed by Colin Forrest. He  
is not a professional climate scientist but his calculations can be  
replicated by any numerate person. For details, see Chapter 1 of Heat.

16. Nathan Rive et al, 10th March 2007. To what extent can a long- 
term temperature target guide near-term climate change commitments?  
Table 1. Climatic Change 82:373-391. DOI 10.1007/s10584-006-9193-4

17. John Vidal, 25th April 2007. China could overtake US as biggest  
emissions culprit by November. The Guardian.








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