[Terrapreta] Global Warming Is Not Settled Science

[Sean K. Barry]

Hi Kevin,

You missed what they were doing in that http://www.surfacestations.org<http://www.surfacestations.org/> site, didn't you?  It a good thing that global climatologist are just looking at data coming from badly sited weather stations.  You don't seem to know this, but most all experimental data has measurement errors in it.  That is often why many different types of measurements are used when making predictions about natural phenomenon, like global climate change.  Things like ice core measurements dating back 100s of thousands of years, pictures before and now of disappearing glaciers that had been in place for thousands of years, pictures before and now of hundreds of square miles of ice shelf cracking off and floating away in 3 weeks instead of the expected 100 years, species extinction at an unprecedented rate do to changing climate conditions, and etc.

The IPCC has many different types of scientists and data.  They made there conclusions by looking at the BIG PICTURE.  When it comes to pissing contests over the value of data with errors in it, most "real" scientists have already learned how to deal with that kind of an issue.  You are right, no one makes conclusions on that kind of data alone.  But, then again, most "real" scientists don't dismiss conclusions because there is some data presented with errors in it to support that conclusion.

This is like your unanimity question the other day.  No, unanimity, nor date without error (perfect data) is required for science to make valid predictions or come to consensus agreement about natural phenomenon.  The ability for science to deal with imperfect data and dissension is paramount to its successes.  These has never been the cause for failure. 

I don't think this will sink in with you ...

Regards,

SKB
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Kevin Chisholm<mailto:kchisholm at ca.inter.net> 
  To: Sean K. Barry<mailto:sean.barry at juno.com> 
  Cc: David Yarrow<mailto:dyarrow at nycap.rr.com> ; terrapreta at bioenergylists.org<mailto:terrapreta at bioenergylists.org> 
  Sent: Friday, November 09, 2007 9:16 AM
  Subject: Re: [Terrapreta] Global Warming Is Not Settled Science


  Dear Sean
  Sean K. Barry wrote:
  > Hi David,
  >  
  > Thanks for pointing out that the Nobel prize earning scientists on the 
  > IPCC have made predictions that were conservatively inaccurate.  You 
  > are absolutely right and it should make anyone reviewing this story 
  > think twice about doubting its validity.
  While the Scientists who analysed the data may have been very competent 
  and knowledgeable, they can be only as accurate as their input data. If 
  the Scientists are using wrong data, then they could come to the wrong 
  conclusions.

  Please see: http://www.surfacestations.org/<http://www.surfacestations.org/>
  and then the Slideshow at: 
  http://gallery.surfacestations.org/UCAR-slides/index.html<http://gallery.surfacestations.org/UCAR-slides/index.html>

  The Slide http://gallery.surfacestations.org/UCAR-slides/page92.html<http://gallery.surfacestations.org/UCAR-slides/page92.html>
  shows the results of a survey of 331 out of 1221 Weather Stations. Of 
  these 331 stations, 15 stations were rated as having a likely error of 
  less than 1 C, and 85% could have errors between 1 C and 5 C

  When raw data is suspect, then one is quite entitled to suspect the 
  conclusions.

  Kevin
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