[Terrapreta] Ice-age anyone?

[Kevin Chisholm]

Dear Lou

lou gold wrote:
> Denial, skepticism and odd takes have always been part of the great 
> weather story. The fact that they are duly represented here by a small 
> minority should come neither as a surprise nor as an indicator that 
> they are embraced generally by the readers of the forum.
>
> We could take Bob Dylan's advice -- "you don't need a weatherman to 
> know the wind blows" or, if you need more, try the trick of "mind over 
> matter" -- pay it no mind and it won't matter.

What you say above could be used equally appropriately by those who are 
concerned about an impending Ice age, with the exception that there seem 
to be more people on the TP List supporting GW. :-)

It is an absolute fact that there have been periods of Global warming in 
the past, and that these warming periods have been followed by periods 
of Global Cooling. These periods of Global Cooling have in turn been 
followed by periods of Global Warming. There is no question that 
temperatures have been going up and down for millennia.

Some people question the accuracy and integrity of the data reported US 
Surface Stations. However, even ignoring this valid concern, we can 
still have a period of global warming that can be followed by a period 
of global cooling. Indeed we have many thousands of years of history 
showing that a period of Global Warming is guaranteed to be followed by 
a period of Global Cooling.

Given that we are now in a period of Global Warming, the only question 
is: When will our present Global Warming Episode turn into a Global 
Cooling Episode? Would you agree that this is a reasonable question to 
ask? Are we going to enter the Global Cooling Phase in 1 year, 5 
years...10?...20?...50?....100 years?

Concerning the impact of Man on Global Warming, we have had "warmer 
warms" and "colder colds" in the past, when Man's impact on the 
environment was very much less. Temperatures swung up and down in the 
past, and they have been swinging up and down in the present (and recent 
past)

Weather predictions are notoriously unreliable. The Weather People 
cannot accurately predict the weather a week ahead. They cannot 
accurately predict the number and intensity of Hurricanes for the coming 
season. It seems obvious that they would have difficulty predicting 
weather conditions 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years into the future.

I don't "believe" we are into a period of Global Cooling, any more than 
I "believe" we are into a period of Global Warming. We "believe" in 
something when:
1:  we have no facts to support or contradict the belief
or
2: it is convenient or advantageous for us to accept the belief, in the 
face of insufficient or conflicting evidence..
or
3: we have conflicting evidence that seems to support both sides of the 
position, and we take an "honest stand" based on what we feel is the 
best stand for us to take.

So, given that we are now in a period of Global Warming, how long do you 
feel it will be before we enter a Global Cooling period? Can the 
"activities of Man" diminish the extent of Global Warming, and extend 
our present warm period in a controlled manner? Can the activities of 
Man then be modified to delay the onset of the next Global Cooling 
period and Ice Age?

Two other interesting questions could be:
1: Given that 100% of Mankind accepted that Global Warming was going to 
get worse, and that we all agreed to do whatever was necessary to hold 
Climate Change to within acceptable limits, what would be the cost to 
Mankind?
and
2: What is the cost to Mankind if we do nothing?

Following is an interesting reference:


       Global Warming:
      A Chilling Perspective

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/ice_ages.html

Best wishes,

Kevin


> hugs to all,
>
> lou
>
>
>
>
>
> On Fri, Apr 25, 2008 at 3:47 PM, Ron Larson <rongretlarson at comcast.net 
> <mailto:rongretlarson at comcast.net>> wrote:
>
>     Terra Preta List Members:
>
>     I write because I think it is exceedingly counter productive to
>     the growth of biochar activity to allow the idea of an ice age to
>     have any credence.  Kurt's cited reference (Phil Chapman) said
>     something I believe to be a big lie (Chapman, not Kurt).  I do not
>     use the word lie loosely - minimum research shows the direct
>     opposite.  The lie from Chapman I claim was:
>         /All four agencies that track Earth's temperature (the Hadley
>     Climate
>     Research Unit in Britain, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space
>     Studies in
>     New York, the Christy group at the University of Alabama, and Remote
>     Sensing Systems Inc in California) report that it cooled by about
>     0.7C in
>     2007. This is the fastest temperature change in the instrumental
>     record and
>     it puts us back where we were in 1930. If the temperature does not
>     soon
>     recover, we will have to conclude that global warming is over.
>     /
>         Going through each of these one by one:
>      
>     1.  NASA (GISS) at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/ says
>     that 2007 was the second highest temperature year on record.  The
>     year 2007 number has been obtained using methodologies that have
>     been in place for decades.
>      
>     2.  The Hadley Center  at
>     http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20080103.html
>     put 2007 a little lower in ranking - but still a high year.  See also
>     http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/18/hadley-center-to-delayers-deniers-pielke-global-warming-not-cooling/
>      
>     3.  The Christy group at the University of Alabama (Huntsville)
>     was much harder to find.   See
>     http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/atmos/christy.html.    As near as I can
>     tell, Dr. John Christy does not report on world average
>     temperature.  However, I found at
>     http://www.exxonsecrets.org/html/personfactsheet.php?id=903  
>         /"While he now acknowledges that global warming is real and
>     the human contribution is significant, Christy has been a
>     long-time skeptic who previously argued that satellite climate
>     data do not show a trend toward global warming, and even show
>     cooling in some areas. His findings have been widely disputed.
>     Christy now asserts that global warming will have beneficial
>     effects on the planet and that increased CO2 emissions from human
>     activities are a net positive."/
>         (Needless to say I find his change positive. but believe his
>     conclusion that warming is beneficial to be ludicrous. In any
>     case, I doubt he is a reasonable authority to cite on global cooling.)
>      
>     4.  Remote Sensing Systems Inc capabilities are at
>     http://www.remss.com/.  I did not find a data base on world
>     average temperatures.  There is one satellite data base on sea
>     surface temperature and they report that temperature has
>     been going down slightly recently.  But as I trust the first
>     two authorities on world average, this can only mean that on-land
>     temperatures are increasing even faster than the average - and
>     this is where w temperature would see the biggest impact of an
>     (totally implausible) ice age.
>      
>         In conclusion,  I urge our terra preta group to really get
>     behind the idea of warming as a big problem - that can probably
>     only be stopped and reversed in the near term with a combination
>     of urgent forestry re-growth and biochar.  If you aren't yet
>     convinced about unconscionable warming , you must not yet have
>     read the latest still-un-published Hansen material.  I just tried
>     to get back to it at  http://arxiv.org/abs/0804.1126  and the
>     Supporting Material at: http://arxiv.org/abs/0804.1135 , but only
>     got  "access denied".  Anyone know of where else these might be? 
>     (I have them, but want others to also.)
>      
>     Ron
>      
>      
>     SNIPPING MATERIAL FROM SEAN, MARK, AND KURT  - ALL TODAY.
>
>     _
>

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