[Terrapreta] Ice-age anyone?

[lou gold]

Hey Kevin,

I'm gonna take my own advice.

as always,

lou



On Fri, Apr 25, 2008 at 8:46 PM, Kevin Chisholm <kchisholm at ca.inter.net>
wrote:

>  Dear Lou
>
> lou gold wrote:
>
> Denial, skepticism and odd takes have always been part of the great weather
> story. The fact that they are duly represented here by a small minority
> should come neither as a surprise nor as an indicator that they are embraced
> generally by the readers of the forum.
>
> We could take Bob Dylan's advice -- "you don't need a weatherman to know
> the wind blows" or, if you need more, try the trick of "mind over matter" --
> pay it no mind and it won't matter.
>
>
> What you say above could be used equally appropriately by those who are
> concerned about an impending Ice age, with the exception that there seem to
> be more people on the TP List supporting GW. :-)
>
> It is an absolute fact that there have been periods of Global warming in
> the past, and that these warming periods have been followed by periods of
> Global Cooling. These periods of Global Cooling have in turn been followed
> by periods of Global Warming. There is no question that temperatures have
> been going up and down for millennia.
>
> Some people question the accuracy and integrity of the data reported US
> Surface Stations. However, even ignoring this valid concern, we can still
> have a period of global warming that can be followed by a period of global
> cooling. Indeed we have many thousands of years of history showing that a
> period of Global Warming is guaranteed to be followed by a period of Global
> Cooling.
>
> Given that we are now in a period of Global Warming, the only question is:
> When will our present Global Warming Episode turn into a Global Cooling
> Episode? Would you agree that this is a reasonable question to ask? Are we
> going to enter the Global Cooling Phase in 1 year, 5
> years...10?...20?...50?....100 years?
>
> Concerning the impact of Man on Global Warming, we have had "warmer warms"
> and "colder colds" in the past, when Man's impact on the environment was
> very much less. Temperatures swung up and down in the past, and they have
> been swinging up and down in the present (and recent past)
>
> Weather predictions are notoriously unreliable. The Weather People cannot
> accurately predict the weather a week ahead. They cannot accurately predict
> the number and intensity of Hurricanes for the coming season. It seems
> obvious that they would have difficulty predicting weather conditions 5, 10,
> 20, 50 and 100 years into the future.
>
> I don't "believe" we are into a period of Global Cooling, any more than I
> "believe" we are into a period of Global Warming. We "believe" in something
> when:
> 1:  we have no facts to support or contradict the belief
> or
> 2: it is convenient or advantageous for us to accept the belief, in the
> face of insufficient or conflicting evidence..
> or
> 3: we have conflicting evidence that seems to support both sides of the
> position, and we take an "honest stand" based on what we feel is the best
> stand for us to take.
>
> So, given that we are now in a period of Global Warming, how long do you
> feel it will be before we enter a Global Cooling period? Can the "activities
> of Man" diminish the extent of Global Warming, and extend our present warm
> period in a controlled manner? Can the activities of Man then be modified to
> delay the onset of the next Global Cooling period and Ice Age?
>
> Two other interesting questions could be:
> 1: Given that 100% of Mankind accepted that Global Warming was going to get
> worse, and that we all agreed to do whatever was necessary to hold Climate
> Change to within acceptable limits, what would be the cost to Mankind?
> and
> 2: What is the cost to Mankind if we do nothing?
>
> Following is an interesting reference:
>  Global Warming:
> A Chilling Perspective http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/ice_ages.html
>
> Best wishes,
>
> Kevin
>
>
>
> hugs to all,
>
> lou
>
>
>
>
>
> On Fri, Apr 25, 2008 at 3:47 PM, Ron Larson <rongretlarson at comcast.net>
> wrote:
>
>>  Terra Preta List Members:
>>
>> I write because I think it is exceedingly counter productive to the growth
>> of biochar activity to allow the idea of an ice age to have any credence.
>> Kurt's cited reference (Phil Chapman) said something I believe to be a big
>> lie (Chapman, not Kurt).  I do not use the word lie loosely - minimum
>> research shows the direct opposite.  The lie from Chapman I claim was:
>>      *All four agencies that track Earth's temperature (the Hadley
>> Climate
>> Research Unit in Britain, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in
>> New York, the Christy group at the University of Alabama, and Remote
>> Sensing Systems Inc in California) report that it cooled by about 0.7C in
>> 2007. This is the fastest temperature change in the instrumental record
>> and
>> it puts us back where we were in 1930. If the temperature does not soon
>> recover, we will have to conclude that global warming is over.
>> *
>>      Going through each of these one by one:
>>
>> 1.  NASA (GISS) at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/ says that 2007
>> was the second highest temperature year on record.  The year 2007 number has
>> been obtained using methodologies that have been in place for decades.
>>
>> 2.  The Hadley Center  at
>> http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20080103.html
>> put 2007 a little lower in ranking - but still a high year.  See also
>>
>> http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/18/hadley-center-to-delayers-deniers-pielke-global-warming-not-cooling/
>>
>> 3.  The Christy group at the University of Alabama (Huntsville) was much
>> harder to find.   See http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/atmos/christy.html.    As
>> near as I can tell, Dr. John Christy does not report on world average
>> temperature.  However, I found at
>> http://www.exxonsecrets.org/html/personfactsheet.php?id=903
>>     *"While he now acknowledges that global warming is real and the human
>> contribution is significant, Christy has been a long-time skeptic who
>> previously argued that satellite climate data do not show a trend toward
>> global warming, and even show cooling in some areas. His findings have been
>> widely disputed. Christy now asserts that global warming will have
>> beneficial effects on the planet and that increased CO2 emissions from human
>> activities are a net positive."*
>>     (Needless to say I find his change positive. but believe his
>> conclusion that warming is beneficial to be ludicrous. In any case, I doubt
>> he is a reasonable authority to cite on global cooling.)
>>
>> 4.  Remote Sensing Systems Inc capabilities are at http://www.remss.com/.
>> I did not find a data base on world average temperatures.  There is one
>> satellite data base on sea surface temperature and they
>> report that temperature has been going down slightly recently.  But as I
>> trust the first two authorities on world average, this can only mean that
>> on-land temperatures are increasing even faster than the average - and this
>> is where w temperature would see the biggest impact of an (totally
>> implausible) ice age.
>>
>>     In conclusion,  I urge our terra preta group to really get behind the
>> idea of warming as a big problem - that can probably only be stopped and
>> reversed in the near term with a combination of urgent forestry re-growth
>> and biochar.  If you aren't yet convinced about unconscionable warming , you
>> must not yet have read the latest still-un-published Hansen material.  I
>> just tried to get back to it at  http://arxiv.org/abs/0804.1126  and the
>> Supporting Material at: http://arxiv.org/abs/0804.1135 , but only got
>>  "access denied".  Anyone know of where else these might be?  (I have them,
>> but want others to also.)
>>
>> Ron
>>
>>
>> SNIPPING MATERIAL FROM SEAN, MARK, AND KURT  - ALL TODAY.
>>
>> _
>
>
>


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