[Terrapreta] Ice-age anyone?

[Kevin Chisholm]

Dear Lou

lou gold wrote:
> Hey Kevin,
>
> I'm gonna take my own advice.
>
> as always,
Well, of course! We all have to go with what we are comfortable. :-) No 
problem with that!

Given that you favor Global Warming, would you care to comment on the 
following questions:

Given that we are now in a period of Global Warming, the only question 
is: When will our present Global Warming Episode turn into a Global 
Cooling Episode? Would you agree that this is a reasonable question to 
ask? Are we going to enter the Global Cooling Phase in 1 year, 5 
years...10?...20?...50?....100 years?

Can the "activities of Man" diminish the extent of Global Warming, and 
extend our present warm period in a controlled manner? Can the 
activities of Man then be modified to delay the onset of the next Global 
Cooling period and Ice Age?

Two other interesting questions could be:
1: Given that 100% of Mankind accepted that Global Warming was going to 
get worse, and that we all agreed to do whatever was necessary to hold 
Climate Change to within acceptable limits, what would be the cost to 
Mankind?
and
2: What is the cost to Mankind if we do nothing?

Best wishes,

Kevin
>
> lou
>
>
>
> On Fri, Apr 25, 2008 at 8:46 PM, Kevin Chisholm 
> <kchisholm at ca.inter.net <mailto:kchisholm at ca.inter.net>> wrote:
>
>     Dear Lou
>
>
>     lou gold wrote:
>>     Denial, skepticism and odd takes have always been part of the
>>     great weather story. The fact that they are duly represented here
>>     by a small minority should come neither as a surprise nor as an
>>     indicator that they are embraced generally by the readers of the
>>     forum.
>>
>>     We could take Bob Dylan's advice -- "you don't need a weatherman
>>     to know the wind blows" or, if you need more, try the trick of
>>     "mind over matter" -- pay it no mind and it won't matter.
>
>     What you say above could be used equally appropriately by those
>     who are concerned about an impending Ice age, with the exception
>     that there seem to be more people on the TP List supporting GW. :-)
>
>     It is an absolute fact that there have been periods of Global
>     warming in the past, and that these warming periods have been
>     followed by periods of Global Cooling. These periods of Global
>     Cooling have in turn been followed by periods of Global Warming.
>     There is no question that temperatures have been going up and down
>     for millennia.
>
>     Some people question the accuracy and integrity of the data
>     reported US Surface Stations. However, even ignoring this valid
>     concern, we can still have a period of global warming that can be
>     followed by a period of global cooling. Indeed we have many
>     thousands of years of history showing that a period of Global
>     Warming is guaranteed to be followed by a period of Global Cooling.
>
>     Given that we are now in a period of Global Warming, the only
>     question is: When will our present Global Warming Episode turn
>     into a Global Cooling Episode? Would you agree that this is a
>     reasonable question to ask? Are we going to enter the Global
>     Cooling Phase in 1 year, 5 years...10?...20?...50?....100 years?
>
>     Concerning the impact of Man on Global Warming, we have had
>     "warmer warms" and "colder colds" in the past, when Man's impact
>     on the environment was very much less. Temperatures swung up and
>     down in the past, and they have been swinging up and down in the
>     present (and recent past)
>
>     Weather predictions are notoriously unreliable. The Weather People
>     cannot accurately predict the weather a week ahead. They cannot
>     accurately predict the number and intensity of Hurricanes for the
>     coming season. It seems obvious that they would have difficulty
>     predicting weather conditions 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years into the
>     future.
>
>     I don't "believe" we are into a period of Global Cooling, any more
>     than I "believe" we are into a period of Global Warming. We
>     "believe" in something when:
>     1:  we have no facts to support or contradict the belief
>     or
>     2: it is convenient or advantageous for us to accept the belief,
>     in the face of insufficient or conflicting evidence..
>     or
>     3: we have conflicting evidence that seems to support both sides
>     of the position, and we take an "honest stand" based on what we
>     feel is the best stand for us to take.
>
>     So, given that we are now in a period of Global Warming, how long
>     do you feel it will be before we enter a Global Cooling period?
>     Can the "activities of Man" diminish the extent of Global Warming,
>     and extend our present warm period in a controlled manner? Can the
>     activities of Man then be modified to delay the onset of the next
>     Global Cooling period and Ice Age?
>
>     Two other interesting questions could be:
>     1: Given that 100% of Mankind accepted that Global Warming was
>     going to get worse, and that we all agreed to do whatever was
>     necessary to hold Climate Change to within acceptable limits, what
>     would be the cost to Mankind?
>     and
>     2: What is the cost to Mankind if we do nothing?
>
>     Following is an interesting reference:
>
>
>            Global Warming:
>           A Chilling Perspective
>
>     http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/ice_ages.html
>
>     Best wishes,
>
>     Kevin
>
>
>
>>     hugs to all,
>>
>>     lou
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>     On Fri, Apr 25, 2008 at 3:47 PM, Ron Larson
>>     <rongretlarson at comcast.net <mailto:rongretlarson at comcast.net>> wrote:
>>
>>         Terra Preta List Members:
>>
>>         I write because I think it is exceedingly counter productive
>>         to the growth of biochar activity to allow the idea of an ice
>>         age to have any credence.  Kurt's cited reference (Phil
>>         Chapman) said something I believe to be a big lie (Chapman,
>>         not Kurt).  I do not use the word lie loosely - minimum
>>         research shows the direct opposite.  The lie from Chapman I
>>         claim was:
>>             /All four agencies that track Earth's temperature (the
>>         Hadley Climate
>>         Research Unit in Britain, the NASA Goddard Institute for
>>         Space Studies in
>>         New York, the Christy group at the University of Alabama, and
>>         Remote
>>         Sensing Systems Inc in California) report that it cooled by
>>         about 0.7C in
>>         2007. This is the fastest temperature change in the
>>         instrumental record and
>>         it puts us back where we were in 1930. If the temperature
>>         does not soon
>>         recover, we will have to conclude that global warming is over.
>>         /
>>             Going through each of these one by one:
>>          
>>         1.  NASA (GISS) at
>>         http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/ says that 2007 was
>>         the second highest temperature year on record.  The year
>>         2007 number has been obtained using methodologies that have
>>         been in place for decades.
>>          
>>         2.  The Hadley Center  at
>>         http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20080103.html
>>         put 2007 a little lower in ranking - but still a high year. 
>>         See also
>>         http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/18/hadley-center-to-delayers-deniers-pielke-global-warming-not-cooling/
>>          
>>         3.  The Christy group at the University of Alabama
>>         (Huntsville) was much harder to find.   See
>>         http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/atmos/christy.html.    As near as I
>>         can tell, Dr. John Christy does not report on world average
>>         temperature.  However, I found at
>>         http://www.exxonsecrets.org/html/personfactsheet.php?id=903  
>>             /"While he now acknowledges that global warming is real
>>         and the human contribution is significant, Christy has been a
>>         long-time skeptic who previously argued that satellite
>>         climate data do not show a trend toward global warming, and
>>         even show cooling in some areas. His findings have been
>>         widely disputed. Christy now asserts that global warming will
>>         have beneficial effects on the planet and that increased CO2
>>         emissions from human activities are a net positive."/
>>             (Needless to say I find his change positive. but believe
>>         his conclusion that warming is beneficial to be ludicrous. In
>>         any case, I doubt he is a reasonable authority to cite on
>>         global cooling.)
>>          
>>         4.  Remote Sensing Systems Inc capabilities are at
>>         http://www.remss.com/.  I did not find a data base on world
>>         average temperatures.  There is one satellite data base on
>>         sea surface temperature and they report that temperature has
>>         been going down slightly recently.  But as I trust the first
>>         two authorities on world average, this can only mean that
>>         on-land temperatures are increasing even faster than the
>>         average - and this is where w temperature would see the
>>         biggest impact of an (totally implausible) ice age.
>>          
>>             In conclusion,  I urge our terra preta group to really
>>         get behind the idea of warming as a big problem - that can
>>         probably only be stopped and reversed in the near term with a
>>         combination of urgent forestry re-growth and biochar.  If you
>>         aren't yet convinced about unconscionable warming , you must
>>         not yet have read the latest still-un-published Hansen
>>         material.  I just tried to get back to it at
>>          http://arxiv.org/abs/0804.1126  and the Supporting Material
>>         at: http://arxiv.org/abs/0804.1135 , but only got  "access
>>         denied".  Anyone know of where else these might be?  (I have
>>         them, but want others to also.)
>>          
>>         Ron
>>          
>>          
>>         SNIPPING MATERIAL FROM SEAN, MARK, AND KURT  - ALL TODAY.
>>
>>         _
>>
>