[Terrapreta] Critical thinking or lack thereof

[Sean K. Barry]

Hi Lewis,

In my understanding, which meshes closely with yours, chaotic is the better description of the global climatic system behavior.  Now, some litigious types might point out that the study of chaos theory is the study of complexity ... see "Complexity: the Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos", Waldrop, M. Mitchell, Touchstone, Simon & Schuster, 1992.  The terms are quite synonymous in that book.

Markov chains? ...  You bring me back to some work I did on detecting Atrial Fibrillation, examining heart rate (R-to-R interval) trends as a Markov process.

Thanks for the lucidity of your posting here tonight, Lewis.  You speak to me in a way that makes complete sense.  I too am "not in my ken" as you put it, with critiquing Michael Crichton.  But, when confronted with an argument that because Micheal Crichton doubts Global Warming as a reality and therefore I need to get the kind of "critical thinking" he apparently has, well, I'll take that bait, and straw man that argument to death (the best offense is a great offense ... haha).

The man only tells good FICTIONAL stories, as far as I can tell.  He cannot possibly have a relevant argument against Global Warming, in my opinion.

Regards,

SKB
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: MMBTUPR at aol.com<mailto:MMBTUPR at aol.com> 
  To: sean.barry at juno.com<mailto:sean.barry at juno.com> ; terrapreta at bioenergylists.org<mailto:terrapreta at bioenergylists.org> ; rukurt at westnet.com.au<mailto:rukurt at westnet.com.au> ; MMBTUPR at aol.com<mailto:MMBTUPR at aol.com> 
  Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2008 8:23 PM
  Subject: Re: [Terrapreta] Critical thinking or lack thereof


            from           Lewis L Smith

  In my understanding, weather systems in general [ including the giant, worldwide one which produces Global Warming ] are chaotic systems rather than complex systems. That is, unlike complex systems, they are basically deterministic but their behavior is unpredictable beyond the short run. This is due not only because these systems are nonlinear, but because they are very sensitive to initial conditions and in addition, can be thrown into a chaotic mode of behavior for apparently trivial reasons, giving rise to the famous "butterfly" metaphor. 

  Moreover, chaotic, complex and random systems are all "chameleon" systems. That is, they tend to imitate each other's behavior for considerable stretches of time, complex systems rather more than the other two. So chaotic behavior can turn up not only in chaotic systems but also in complex systems, like stock markets, for example. On this latter point, see the NYSE on Oct 19, 1987, and for about two weeks thereafter. Incidentally nobody has ever been able to find sufficient reasons for what happened that day, a sure "signature" of chaotic behavior.

  On the matter of chameleon behavior in general, please note the following two examples  >>> 

  [1]     In the North Atlantic Ocean, the tropical disturbance which becomes a hurricane, starts off the west coast of Africa and may spend several weeks wandering in a Markovian manner, before it reaches the Lesser Antilles [ on the eastern frontier of the Caribbean Sea ] and suddenly starts to behave chaotically, by turning into a hurricane which may last only five to seven days.  This is contrast to the weather systems of the Kuriles Islands off Alaska which do spend most of their time in a chaotic mode.

  [ A Markov chain is a form of random, not chaotic, behavior. ]

  [2]     If we Langrangian optimize a logistic function [ so that the control variable is 0.50 ] and run cases with "seeds" [ the value of x sub zero ] starting at 0.10 through 5.00 and increasing by hundredths, we will find that, depending on the seed, the value obtained after 20-30 iterations, can be any one of a great variety of things. It can be a constant, an indefinite trend, an oscillation between two constants or chaotic behavior with repeated bifurcations, for example. And if we keep increasing the seed, we will see still more diversity of behavior. And this is despite the fact that a logistic function is a relatively simple quadratic function which is used in the study of  biological species and consumer markets. 

  None of this of course, prevents chaotic systems from being extremely complicated and indeed undoubtedly contributes to their complexity in that sense.

  However, let me hasten make explicit what was implicit in my previous post. Global Warming is a major and urgent problem, regardless of the complexity or the taxonomy of the weather system which produces it, or of how much of it is due to cow gases and how much to combustion.  The evidence is all around us, if we just take the trouble to look, as in the examples which I gave.

  As for the psychological state of Michael Crichton, I will leave that to people who have some "elements of judgment" relating to this matter !  I am out of my ken in this regard. You may even want to add some additional categories to my two !

  Cordially. ###


  **************
  Ideas to please picky eaters. Watch video on AOL Living.
  (http://living.aol.com/video/how-to-please-your-picky-eater/rachel-campos-duffy/2050827?NCID=aolcmp00300000002598) 
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: /attachments/20080218/bd793fc6/attachment.html