[Terrapreta] Critical thinking or lack thereof

[MMBTUPR at aol.com]

          from           Lewis L Smith

In my understanding, weather systems in general [ including the giant, 
worldwide one which produces Global Warming ] are chaotic systems rather than 
complex systems. That is, unlike complex systems, they are basically deterministic 
but their behavior is unpredictable beyond the short run. This is due not only 
because these systems are nonlinear, but because they are very sensitive to 
initial conditions and in addition, can be thrown into a chaotic mode of 
behavior for apparently trivial reasons, giving rise to the famous "butterfly" 
metaphor. 

Moreover, chaotic, complex and random systems are all "chameleon" systems. 
That is, they tend to imitate each other's behavior for considerable stretches 
of time, complex systems rather more than the other two. So chaotic behavior 
can turn up not only in chaotic systems but also in complex systems, like stock 
markets, for example. On this latter point, see the NYSE on Oct 19, 1987, and 
for about two weeks thereafter. Incidentally nobody has ever been able to find 
sufficient reasons for what happened that day, a sure "signature" of chaotic 
behavior.

On the matter of chameleon behavior in general, please note the following two 
examples   >>> 

[1]     In the North Atlantic Ocean, the tropical disturbance which becomes a 
hurricane, starts off the west coast of Africa and may spend several weeks 
wandering in a Markovian manner, before it reaches the Lesser Antilles [ on the 
eastern frontier of the Caribbean Sea ] and suddenly starts to behave 
chaotically, by turning into a hurricane which may last only five to seven days.   
This is contrast to the weather systems of the Kuriles Islands off Alaska which 
do spend most of their time in a chaotic mode.

[ A Markov chain is a form of random, not chaotic, behavior. ]

[2]     If we Langrangian optimize a logistic function [ so that the control 
variable is 0.50 ] and run cases with "seeds" [ the value of x sub zero ] 
starting at 0.10 through 5.00 and increasing by hundredths, we will find that, 
depending on the seed, the value obtained after 20-30 iterations, can be any one 
of a great variety of things. It can be a constant, an indefinite trend, an 
oscillation between two constants or chaotic behavior with repeated 
bifurcations, for example. And if we keep increasing the seed, we will see still more 
diversity of behavior. And this is despite the fact that a logistic function is a 
relatively simple quadratic function which is used in the study of   
biological species and consumer markets. 

None of this of course, prevents chaotic systems from being extremely 
complicated and indeed undoubtedly contributes to their complexity in that sense.

However, let me hasten make explicit what was implicit in my previous post. 
Global Warming is a major and urgent problem, regardless of the complexity or 
the taxonomy of the weather system which produces it, or of how much of it is 
due to cow gases and how much to combustion.   The evidence is all around us, 
if we just take the trouble to look, as in the examples which I gave.

As for the psychological state of Michael Crichton, I will leave that to 
people who have some "elements of judgment" relating to this matter !   I am out 
of my ken in this regard. You may even want to add some additional categories 
to my two !

Cordially. ###


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