[Terrapreta] Citations?

[Kevin Chisholm]

Dear Peter


  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Peter Read 
  To: terrapreta at bioenergylists.org ; F. Marc de Piolenc 
  Sent: Sunday, June 22, 2008 2:04 PM
  Subject: Re: [Terrapreta] Citations?


  Have a look at 
  http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/TargetCO2_20080407.pdf
  It reads as honest science to me
  Peter

  Following is the Summary of that paper:
  Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?

  James Hansen,1,2* Makiko Sato,1,2 Pushker Kharecha,1,2 David Beerling,3

  Valerie Masson-Delmotte,4 Mark Pagani,5 Maureen Raymo,6 Dana L. Royer,7 James C. Zachos8

  Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~3°C for doubled CO2, including only fast

  feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is

  ~6°C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate states between glacial conditions and icefree

  Antarctica. Decreasing CO2 was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50

  million years ago, large scale glaciation occurring when CO2 fell to 425±75 ppm, a level

  that will be exceeded within decades, barring prompt policy changes. If humanity wishes to

  preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth

  is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to

  be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm. The largest uncertainty in the

  target arises from possible changes of non-CO2 forcings. An initial 350 ppm CO2 target

  may be achievable by phasing out coal use except where CO2 is captured and adopting

  agricultural and forestry practices that sequester carbon. If the present overshoot of this

  target CO2 is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects.



  Human activities are altering Earth's atmospheric composition. Concern about global warming

  due to long-lived human-made greenhouse gases (GHGs) led to the United Nations Framework

  Convention on Climate Change (1) with the objective of stabilizing GHGs in the atmosphere at a

  level preventing "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."



  I would comment as follows:

  1: The first thing to be questioned is the title of the paper: "Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?"

  It is yet to be demonstrated and proven that Man is causing the full extent of the CO2 rise, and that Man is causing the present Global Warming Episode, and that Man is able to do anything about it. It is very arrogant of Man to think that he can win against Mother Nature.

  2: They are very quick to draw upon Paleoclimate data when it suits their purposes, yet they choose to ignore the fact that previous GW/GC incidients happened entirely without the intervention of Man. 

  3: They say that doubling CO2 will increase temperatures by about 3 C (fast process only) to 6 C (including slower Albedo processes. They then say that decreasing CO2 was the main cause of the cooling trend that began 50 million years ago, with large scale glaciation occurring when CO2 fell to 425 +/- 75 PPM. Our present level is about 388 ppm, which is dangerously close to the lower limit level of 350 ppm, where their data suggests that glaciation is a certainty. If we don't want glaciation, then what they are saying suggests that we should be doing whatever we can to RAISE CO2.  However, he then goes on to advocate a preferred level of 350 PPM, to "... preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth..." yet they just finished telling us that if teh CO2 falls to 350 PPM, history shows we agre going to get glaciated. This is a serious non-sequitor.

  4: Then they state "The largest uncertainty in the target arises from possible changes of non-CO2 forcings." What they are really saying is basically "There are other factors of much greater importance that will influence Global Climate Change." If so, then why are they messing around with smaller man-made CO2 effects, instead of dealing with the much larger influences? With this background knowledge, why do they infer that if we attend to anthropogenic CO2, then everything will be OK??? 

  5: Then they go on to say "An initial 350 ppm CO2 targer may be achievable by phasing out coal use except where CO2 is captured and adopting agricultural and forestry practices that sequester carbon." Why do they focus on eliminating coal, and not on widespread fossil energy reduction? Why do they let oil "off the hook"? Why are they placing the burden of carbon sequestration on the Farming and Forestry Sectors, when it is the Industrial and Consumer Sectors who benefit from abundant energy? This is classic "externalization of costs."

  6: The second paragraph above states teh purpose of the IPCC Panel as "... the objective of stabilizing GHGs in the atmosphere at a level preventing "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." By their own admission, GHG's are a minor part of the problem, and they make no mention of capping the additions of fossil carbon additions to the atmosphere.

  In my opinion, this is a sloppy paper. Science is not sloppy. Others may disagree with me.

  I would make the following observations:
  1: "A truth that is told with ill intent beats all the lies one can invent."
  2: "If they are asking the wrong question, they are sure to get the wrong answer."

  Best wishes,

  Kevin




  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: "F. Marc de Piolenc" <piolenc at archivale.com>
  To: <terrapreta at bioenergylists.org>
  Sent: Sunday, June 22, 2008 6:55 PM
  Subject: [Terrapreta] Citations?


  >- Kevin and Marc:   Where may I go to find the Gore and Hansen 
  > distortions of which you speak?  (Citations with page numbers.)


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