[Terrapreta] Ice-age anyone?

[Kevin Chisholm]

Dear Max

MFH wrote:
> Apparently there is a theory that in fact the Earth is cooling, or rather,
> it would be cooling if this effect wasn't masked by the offset warming
> caused by excess CO2.
>   

I think that what is going on might have a further layer of complexity.
1: Global Warming (Increased solar energy intensity and retention of 
solar energy)
2: Global Dimming (Reduced solar energy reaching the earth because of 
atmospheric effects
3: Global Cooling. Reduced solar energy intensity and reduced solar 
energy retention.
4: Where we are in the Global Warming/Global Cooling cycle. (GW always 
ends up as GC, and vice versa)

See: http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/ice_ages.html for an overview 
that raises some interesting questions.  See:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/dimming_prog_summary.shtml 
for a description of Global dimming,
and see: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2058273530743771382 
for an excellent video on Global Dimming.

> I confess to wondering how this can be measured?
>   
Meaningful measurements will provide the facts that lead to the truth. 
Good measurements applied to the wrong hypothesis can lead to wrong answers.

I believe that belief is getting in the way of truth. :-) More 
specifically, it seems to me that most people assume that GW is caused 
by the activities of Man and that Man is able to reverse Global Warming, 
Period. It seems to me that too many people have frozen their beliefs 
too early. There seems to be general and widespread agreement that 
temperatures have risen over the past 30 years, indicating that we are 
indeed in a period of GW. Questions can be raised about:
1: The degree of rise that actually occurred (questionable data)
2: The rise that would have happened without the Global Dimming Effect
3: The present rate of rise (Is the rate of rise increasing, stable, or 
falling. OR, has the "Rate of Rise" turned into a "Rate of Decline"?)
4: Changes in solar energy intensity, and in other sun related effects 
that can impact on Earth's climate.
5: Other factors???

If a "Credible Hypothesis" is established, then measurements can be 
identified to prove or disprove the Hypothesis. Some of the data and 
measurements will already exists, but additional measurements may be 
necessary. In my opinion, what we need is the equivalent to a "Unifying 
Theory of Global Warming, Dimming and Cooling", and if this could be put 
together and funded, we could easily tool up to get whatever 
measurements were required.

Then we would have Science and we would be operating from fact and 
truth. We could then dispense with consensus, belief, and division.

Best wishes,

Kevin


> Max H
>
>