[Terrapreta] expansion

[Duane Pendergast]

Kevin! Sean! I think that estimate of 5765 PPM atmospheric CO2 came from
you.  I suspect that if you compare this with typical estimates of fossil
fuel availability on carbon cycle charts you will find the fuel is long gone
well before the atmosphere reaches that level. Of course those estimates of
fossil fuel supplies are just that - estimates too!

Still, total supplies of fossil fuel should be taken into consideration when
estimating what levels of atmospheric CO2 might be reached. 

Duane

-----Original Message-----
From: terrapreta-bounces at bioenergylists.org
[mailto:terrapreta-bounces at bioenergylists.org] On Behalf Of Kevin Chisholm
Sent: June 3, 2008 2:17 PM
To: Sean K. Barry
Cc: Terra Preta
Subject: Re: [Terrapreta] expansion

Sean K. Barry wrote:
> Hi Kurt,
>  
> I think you read perhaps more into what I said than what I intended.  
> That might be my fault.  *If 1000 ppm occurs*, I think the 
> ramifications will be as I proposed.  Make sure to note the word IF, 
> please.  I said IF!   I think 2000 ppm by 2100 is high.  My guess 
> would be 700-800 ppm by 2100.  This by just extrapolating current 
> trends (+ ~4ppm/yr) and a presumption that this world will do nothing 
> to stop this trend.

If you assume an increase in energy demand of 1% per year, CO2 additions 
would be about 2.498 times as much per year by 2100... say 10 ppm per 
year. There is enormous pent up demand in China, India, Brazil, and the 
under developed countries. The per capita consumption will increase, and 
in addition, the capitas will increase. With both these factors 
compounded, one could perhaps support a 3% compounded growth in energy 
demand and increase in atmospheric CO2. Assuming that nothing else 
changes, and the energy is there, then the CO2 in 2100 would be 380 x 
(1.03)^92 = 5,765 ppm