[Terrapreta] expansion

[Sean K. Barry]

Hi Duane,

Re-read carefully ... That was not my estimate of CO2 concentration in the year 2100 AD ...  My estimate of atmospheric CO2 concentration is ~700-800 ppm in 2100 AD, if all humans do NOTHING to reduce CO2, but instead just continue to burn fossil fuels until then.

I also will stick my neck out and do more than estimate, but I will unequivocally say $2108 is exactly $100 more than $2008.

Call me a liar, again, Francoise.

hahahahahha ... 

Regards,

SKB
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Duane Pendergast<mailto:still.thinking at computare.org> 
  To: 'Kevin Chisholm'<mailto:kchisholm at ca.inter.net> ; 'Sean K. Barry'<mailto:sean.barry at juno.com> 
  Cc: 'Terra Preta'<mailto:Terrapreta at bioenergylists.org> 
  Sent: Tuesday, June 03, 2008 4:08 PM
  Subject: RE: [Terrapreta] expansion




  Kevin! Sean! I think that estimate of 5765 PPM atmospheric CO2 came from
  you.  I suspect that if you compare this with typical estimates of fossil
  fuel availability on carbon cycle charts you will find the fuel is long gone
  well before the atmosphere reaches that level. Of course those estimates of
  fossil fuel supplies are just that - estimates too!

  Still, total supplies of fossil fuel should be taken into consideration when
  estimating what levels of atmospheric CO2 might be reached. 

  Duane

  -----Original Message-----
  From: terrapreta-bounces at bioenergylists.org<mailto:terrapreta-bounces at bioenergylists.org>
  [mailto:terrapreta-bounces at bioenergylists.org] On Behalf Of Kevin Chisholm
  Sent: June 3, 2008 2:17 PM
  To: Sean K. Barry
  Cc: Terra Preta
  Subject: Re: [Terrapreta] expansion

  Sean K. Barry wrote:
  > Hi Kurt,
  >  
  > I think you read perhaps more into what I said than what I intended.  
  > That might be my fault.  *If 1000 ppm occurs*, I think the 
  > ramifications will be as I proposed.  Make sure to note the word IF, 
  > please.  I said IF!   I think 2000 ppm by 2100 is high.  My guess 
  > would be 700-800 ppm by 2100.  This by just extrapolating current 
  > trends (+ ~4ppm/yr) and a presumption that this world will do nothing 
  > to stop this trend.

  If you assume an increase in energy demand of 1% per year, CO2 additions 
  would be about 2.498 times as much per year by 2100... say 10 ppm per 
  year. There is enormous pent up demand in China, India, Brazil, and the 
  under developed countries. The per capita consumption will increase, and 
  in addition, the capitas will increase. With both these factors 
  compounded, one could perhaps support a 3% compounded growth in energy 
  demand and increase in atmospheric CO2. Assuming that nothing else 
  changes, and the energy is there, then the CO2 in 2100 would be 380 x 
  (1.03)^92 = 5,765 ppm



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